California Freight Cleanup → Appendix
All 57 investigations behind the study.
43 of them have full deep-dive pages, organized by the focus area they primarily serve. The remaining 14 are supporting analyses — validation rungs, cross-checks, foundational methodology — that underpin findings cited elsewhere but don’t carry visitor narrative on their own. They’re listed at the bottom with one-line summaries.
Element 1 — Emissions Inventory
See Element 1 summary.
- 1-1 — Transport electrification scenario
- 1-2 — Building electrification scenario
- 1-3 — Combined electrification scenario
Element 2 — Gas-Fired EGU Health Impact
See Element 2 summary.
Element 3 — Quantitative Air Quality Model Uncertainty
See Element 3 summary. The multi-fidelity GP emulator stack — ISRM through L4 MFGP — underpins the defensible uncertainty bounds used throughout the cascade.
- 3-1 — AQS held-out validation (ladder rung 1)
- 3-2 — L2 bias-corrected validation (rung 2)
- 3-3 — L3 vanDonkelaar V5 reference (rung 3)
- 3-4 — L4 MFGP corrected (rung 4 — canonical chain)
- 3-5 — L5 FAQSD reference (rung 5)
- 3-6 — Cascade Sobol GSA (4-D, dominance-margin QoI, EPA-narrow VSL)
- 3-7 — Daily cadence extension test
- 3-8 — 7-state CONUS portability test
- 3-9 — Daily L4 MFGP CA 2019 (firmly-closed scope-boundary)
- 3-10 — Cascade Sobol GSA (6-D, raw-NB QoI, canonical-wide VSL)
- 3-11 — Physics-informed GP kernel (Kennedy-O’Hagan mean-prior)
Element 4 — Co-Benefits / Disbenefits
See Element 4 summary.
- 4-1 — Ozone channel 5-D Sobol (post-Sillman 1995)
- 4-2 — Ozone chemistry MFMC overlay (regime-aware surrogate)
Element 5 — DAC Distributional Analysis
See Element 5 summary.
Element 6 — Ratepayer Burden / Non-Energy Impact
See Element 6 summary. Heaviest criterion (Criterion 3, 25 pts). Sandwich-bracket CRF defensibility + D_all_in_4B zero-regret result.
- 6-1 — Health-VSL-EVPI framework (foundation)
- 6-2 — Per-design VOI for CRF research (foundation)
- 6-3 — Hierarchical Bayesian Cox PH on 706K NHIS+NHANES (Tier 1)
- 6-4 — Portfolio cost-effectiveness + L0–L5 robustness (Tier 1)
- 6-5 — Staged CRF research roadmap (meta-analysis ROI 665×)
- 6-6 — CRF-conditional decision + posterior-integrated regret (Tier 1)
- 6-7 — WONDER-county ecological CRF triangulation (Tier 1)
- 6-8 — Q3 $300M scale case study (Tier 1; CARB AB 617 cycle)
- 6-9 — ISRM validation of Q_nsga_2 (verdict AMBIGUOUS)
- 6-10 — Cox PH robustness checks (cluster-robust SE + alt windows)
Element 7 — Wildfire-PV Interaction
See Element 7 summary.
- 7-3 — Wildfire-robustness analysis (foundation)
- 4-3 — Wildfire-vs-electrification cost-effectiveness trade-off
- Investigation 7-2 — CMIP6 2050 wildfire frequency projection (1.86× PM2.5 amplification)
- 7-4 — Wildfire cross-validation (5/13 gates pass — honest scope framing)
- 7-1 — Wildfire-PV interaction (Tier 1; ~980k MWh / $49M loss; Channel B dominance)
Element 8 — Sensor Placement Optimization
See Element 8 summary.
- 8-1 — Per-cell monitor VOI map
- 8-2 — Adaptive sensor placement (sequential observation)
- 8-3 — Bayesian optimization with constraints (BOCA)
- 8-4 — Regulatory + low-cost sensor fusion
- 8-5 — Sensor strategy cross-validation (load-bearing negative finding)
Cross-Cascade Methods
See Cross-Cascade Methods summary. Analytical infrastructure spanning multiple elements: portfolio frontier, POMDP decision framework, NSGA-II Pareto search, Sobol-informed research priority. Serves Criterion 1 Technical Merit.
- M-1 — Portfolio frontier + 6 named candidate portfolios
- M-2 — POMDP / sequential decision framework + cost-overrun model
- M-3 — NSGA-II Pareto search (49 portfolios dominate E_smart)
- M-4 — Sobol-informed research priority (effectiveness_scale #1)
- M-5 — Cross-investigation MC propagation framework
Supporting analyses
14 investigations that underpin findings cited above but don’t carry visitor narrative directly. Source files live in the cascade repository — not deployed here. The path column below points to each investigation’s source files.
| Inv | What it does | In-repo |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Ozone crossover analysis — terminal analysis of ozone net-positive crossover events; supports Investigation 4-1 framing. | investigations/10_ozone-crossover/latest/ |
| 11 | CRF-conditional policy — older CRF-policy interaction precursor to Investigation 6-6. | investigations/11_crf-conditional-policy/latest/ |
| 13 | DTE Stockton biomass anomaly — retire-vs-keep decision (3.7 deaths/yr at $0; included in A_free_lunch). | investigations/13_biomass-anomaly/latest/ |
| 19 | Indoor-air retrofit pathway — per-CRF (Di / Krewski) deaths per $B; load-bearing for Investigation 6-9 ISRM validation. | investigations/19_indoor-air-coupling/latest/ |
| 20 | Grid marginal EV — marginal-emissions analysis under different grid dispatch scenarios; inputs to Investigation 1-1. | investigations/20_grid-marginal-ev/latest/ |
| 28 | Data assimilation for PM2.5 — Bayesian fusion of monitoring + ISRM fields; foundation for Investigation 3-4 and Investigation 3-8. | investigations/28_data-assimilation-pm25/latest/ |
| 30 | Wildfire PCE-UQ — polynomial-chaos uncertainty quantification on wildfire emissions surrogate. | investigations/30_wildfire-pce-uq/latest/ |
| 31 | Unified Bayesian experimental design — cross-cutting BED methodology infrastructure. | investigations/31_unified-bed/latest/ |
| 33 | 4D-Var assimilation — variational data assimilation infrastructure for atmospheric inversion. | investigations/33_dvar-assimilation/latest/ |
| 34 | PINN advection-diffusion-reaction surrogate — physics-informed neural network as alternative to MFGP. | investigations/34_pinn-adr-surrogate/latest/ |
| 35 | GP advection-diffusion-reaction surrogate — classical Gaussian-process surrogate variant. | investigations/35_gp-adr-surrogate/latest/ |
| 36 | EVPPI Strong-GAM — Strong et al. 2014 GAM-based EVPPI estimation; methodology infrastructure. | investigations/36_evppi-strong-gam/latest/ |
| 37 | Smoke-PV coupling — precursor pathway analysis for the Investigation 7-1 wildfire-PV finding. | investigations/37_smoke-pv-coupling/latest/ |
| 57 | MAIAC AOD daily L1 — third independent L1 source for daily L4 MFGP test (FAIL +132% RMSE; closes daily-L4 scope boundary). | investigations/57_maiac-aod-daily-l1/latest/ |