Methodology Explorations. Work in Progress.
These are frameworks and prototypes I’m developing — not yet backed by real-world data. They demonstrate methodology, not findings. When something here matures to real data and validated results, it moves to Studies.
Global Risk Intelligence Network
36 global risks across 6 domains, connected by 101 causal edges. Inject evidence — a pandemic, a cyberattack, a commodity shock — and watch beliefs cascade through the network in real time. Adjust any causal link and see how sensitive your conclusions are to your assumptions.
College Closure Risk
4,000+ institutions modeled with real College Scorecard and IPEDS data. Six investigations, three model tiers, three interactive tools.
Is Your Degree Worth It?
65,935 college programs analyzed with real IRS earnings data. 34% have negative lifetime ROI. Five questions from program-level ROI through variance decomposition to policy simulation. Real data, real findings — but data analysis, not modeling and simulation.
More explorations will appear here as I develop new frameworks. For validated analyses with real data, see the Studies.