Is Your Degree Worth It?
31% of higher education students are in programs that cost more than they'll ever earn back. $418 billion in federal aid over five years went to those programs. The data to identify them exists — College Scorecard publishes IRS-derived earnings for every program. We analyzed 65,935 programs at 6,255 institutions.
The answer depends on where you go, what you study, and what credential you earn.
Five Questions
Which Programs Have Negative ROI?
34% of programs — 22,692 — have negative lifetime ROI. Certificates are worst (64% negative). Graduate degrees are safest (2-4% negative). The same field can be positive at one school and negative at another.
Is It the Field or the School?
Institution explains 31% of ROI variance, field of study 19%. Where you go matters more than what you study — but both matter.
What Predicts Negative ROI?
A school's overall track record is the strongest signal (53% of model importance). The field's national rate is second (27%). Credential level third (13%). AUC 0.927.
What If We Cut Federal Aid to the Worst Programs?
Cutting all negative-ROI programs from Title IV would affect 2 million students and make 2,626 institutions unviable. Cosmetology (98% negative), drama (76%), and liberal arts (71%) are the worst fields.
Where's the Biggest Improvement Leverage?
Programs close to breakeven with high enrollment are the highest-leverage targets. University of Phoenix dominates — the scale of enrollment means even small improvements affect thousands.
Explore the Data
Program ROI Lookup
Search any program at any institution. See its ROI, earnings, debt, and how it compares to the same field at other schools.
Field Comparison
Compare fields of study across credential levels and institution types. See which fields consistently produce positive ROI and which don't.
Policy Simulator
Set a Title IV eligibility threshold and see the impact: how many programs cut, how many students affected, how many institutions become unviable.
What We Don't Know
Lifetime projections from 5-year data. Scorecard earnings cover 1-5 years post-completion. Lifetime ROI is projected using cross-sectional growth rates. Actual career earnings trajectories vary.
Opportunity cost is estimated. We assume foregone earnings during enrollment based on high school median. Students who work during school have different cost structures.
Privacy suppression limits coverage. Scorecard suppresses earnings for programs with fewer than 30 completers. 72% of program records are suppressed. The 65,935 programs with data skew toward larger programs.