The Tradeoff Curve
What happens if we revoke Title IV eligibility for programs below a given ROI threshold? We swept from −$500K to +$100K and tracked the impact on programs, students, and institutional viability.
Eight Scenarios Compared
Each row shows what happens at a specific ROI cutoff. The tension is between catching bad programs and keeping institutions viable.
| Threshold | Programs Cut | % of All | Students Affected | Institutions | Unviable | % Unviable | Avg Alternatives |
|---|
Scenario arithmetic on Q1 outputs. "Unviable" = institution loses >50% of programs. "Alternatives" = average number of programs within 50 miles in same field.
Which Credentials Are Most Exposed?
Certificates and associate's degrees dominate the negative-ROI landscape. Graduate and professional degrees are nearly immune.
Top 10 Worst Fields
These fields have the highest count of negative-ROI programs nationally. The list includes both fields that are universally bad (cosmetology) and large fields where a minority of programs fail (health, business).
What the Simulation Reveals
The tradeoff is real: aggressive thresholds protect more students from bad investments but eliminate access for students who have no nearby alternative. There is no threshold that cleanly separates "protect" from "harm."