The Landscape
The median program returns about $124K over 20 years above what a high-school graduate would earn — but that median hides enormous variation. More than 22,000 programs have negative ROI, meaning graduates earn less over 20 years than they would have without the degree, even before accounting for tuition and debt.
How ROI Is Distributed
The histogram below shows the full ROI distribution across all 65,935 programs. The rose-shaded region to the left of zero represents programs where graduates would have been financially better off skipping college entirely.
Negative ROI by Credential Level
Not all credentials carry the same risk. The percentage of programs with negative ROI varies dramatically by credential type — from nearly two-thirds of certificates to under 3% of doctoral degrees.
Top 15 Fields by % Negative ROI
Some fields are far more likely to produce negative-ROI programs than others. Cosmetology, performing arts, and liberal arts top the list — but even within these fields, individual programs at specific schools can vary wildly.
How We Calculated ROI
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. For each program, we computed the present value of 20 years of observed post-graduation earnings (from College Scorecard) minus the present value of what a high-school-only graduate earns over the same period (from BLS Current Population Survey). We subtracted total cost of attendance (tuition, fees, living expenses net of aid) and applied a 3.5% real discount rate. A negative ROI means the program fails to beat the high-school baseline over 20 years — the graduate would have been financially better off not attending.
Source: College Scorecard program-level earnings data, BLS CPS age-earnings profiles, IPEDS cost data. Discount rate: 3.5% real. Horizon: 20 years post-completion.