Economic boundary
This model does not forecast a retail rate.
The former study turned a chosen gas build into a household rate point estimate. That chain omitted fuel, transmission, financing, allocation, load growth, and state rate design. It is retired.
What is defensible: an order-of-magnitude annualized capital requirement. Under the declared $1.1–$2.0 billion/GW capital range, 8.1% capital recovery factor, and fixed O&M assumption, one GW represents roughly 103.7–186.2 million per year before fuel, transmission, and retail allocation.
Market context
Capacity price is a signal, not avoided retail cost.
325
$/MW-day UCAP, 2028/29
118.6M
Gross annual price signal per GW
14.7%
Total procured reserve margin
PJM cautions that cleared MW × clearing price is not total cost to load because self-supply and bilateral contracts change exposure.
Decision use
Allocate before you estimate.
For a real rate case, the next model must start with the utility's actual resource plan, interconnection upgrades, contract structure, class load shapes, and commission-approved allocation rules. The public screen can identify the capacity package to cost; it cannot decide who pays.