PJM Grid · Flexibility

Flexible load is a contract, not a slider.

The model can show leverage. Telemetry, triggers, duration, rebound, and penalties determine whether that leverage exists in operations.

Current facts as of 22 July 2026 · Model uses EIA-930 years 2016–2024

The repaired model can curtail only data-center load.

A 20% setting on a 30 GW DC scenario makes at most 6 GW available. It never removes 20% of total PJM demand. The model calls that flexibility only in hours that would otherwise cross the scenario ceiling.

Why it matters: in the Elliott-window counterfactual, adding 20 GW of firm capability leaves 6 screen hours; allowing 20% DC flexibility removes those modeled crossings. This is a scenario result, not proof of program performance.

Curtailability has to be an operating product.

Trigger

Define the emergency condition, dispatch authority, and notification channel.

Duration

Specify maximum event length, annual calls, recovery, and rebound load.

Measurement

Use telemetry and a baseline that cannot credit load that was never going to run.

Performance

Bind payments to delivered reduction and define penalties for non-performance.

The auction provides context, not a benefit estimate.

At the 2028/29 clearing price of 325 $/MW-day UCAP, one GW corresponds to a gross price signal of about 118.6 million per year. Accreditation, performance, avoided infrastructure, program cost, and retail design determine actual value.