PJM Grid · Interactive

How fast does the margin disappear?

The surface is a stress screen. It does not claim cascade probabilities, fuel-specific outages, or customer impacts.

Current facts as of 22 July 2026 · Model uses EIA-930 years 2016–2024

Load growth and unavailable supply compound.

Choose one of 72 exact historical-replay scenarios. “Supply unavailable” is deliberately technology-neutral: it can represent correlated outages, fuel constraints, or an optimistic base-ceiling assumption. It is not labeled gas curtailment without fuel-specific data.

9/9
Years with a crossing
97
Worst-year hours
13.1 GW
Worst hourly gap

Baseline 30 GW load case.

The surface finds conditions worth underwriting.

It does not estimate cascade probability or people affected. Its job is to show how quickly a package loses margin when load arrives faster, supply performs worse, or the assumed ceiling was too generous.