Transfer Sweep: DOM Hours vs. Capacity
| DC Load | Current (6.6 GW) | +HVDC (9.6 GW) | Transfer Needed | Capex | $/MWh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 GW | 142 hrs | 0 hrs | 9.6 GW | $4.8B | $0.29 |
| 5 GW | 374 hrs | 16 hrs | 11.1 GW | $7.2B | $0.52 |
| 7 GW | 888 hrs | 119 hrs | 12.1 GW | $8.8B | $0.66 |
| 10 GW | 2,468 hrs | 541 hrs | 14.6 GW | $12.8B | $1.03 |
PJM's planned $4.8B HVDC upgrade (3 GW additional transfer capacity) resolves the bottleneck only up to 3 GW of data center load. Dominion already has 4 GW committed by 2028—the HVDC is undersized before it's built.
Our model says 3 GW DC needs +3 GW transfer costing $4.8B. Dominion is building exactly that. This confirms consistency with Dominion's own capacity adequacy assessment—the model uses the same public inputs (CETL, load forecasts). It is not an independent prediction.
Dominion has 4 GW committed by 2028. The HVDC comes online June 2032 and handles ~3 GW. At 7 GW DC, even with the HVDC, Dominion still shows 119 hours unserved. Full reliability requires ~12 GW total transfer—almost double.
At 7 GW DC load, even with the HVDC upgrade, Dominion still faces 119 hours unserved. Closing the gap entirely requires ~12 GW total transfer capacity—double the planned HVDC investment.
The per-MWh cost of transmission to enable distributed siting ($0.25–$0.66/MWh) is an order of magnitude cheaper than the reliability cost of concentrated siting. Distribution is not just safer—it's cheaper.