Hours Unserved vs. Dominion Share
Dominion can handle about 10–20% of DC load, not 70%. Moving from 70% to 20% at 5 GW eliminates 330 hours of unserved energy.
The grid-optimal distribution is 0% in Dominion—all data center load in the rest of PJM. But the practical threshold is 10–20% Dominion share, above which reliability degrades sharply.
Fleet Calibration Sensitivity
DOM CT capacity is calibrated to 5.0 GW (named plants total ~3.6 GW; remainder represents DR and uncounted peakers). We swept CT from 4.0 to 6.0 GW to test sensitivity. The qualitative finding holds: under all calibrations, 70% share is catastrophic.
| DOM CT | Firm Capacity | Mean Hrs (5 GW DC) | P90 Hrs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0 GW | 23.7 GW | 876 | 1,593 |
| 5.0 GW (calibrated) | 24.7 GW | 545 | 1,095 |
| 6.0 GW | 25.7 GW | 313 | 684 |
50-draw stochastic MC per CT value. 3x range in absolute hours, but 0% reliability under all calibrations at 70/30.
Coal retirement is the single largest sensitivity driver. Retiring 50% of PJM coal capacity shifts the tipping point from 5 GW to 3 GW—a 40% reduction in available headroom. The data center siting question cannot be separated from the coal retirement timeline.
CETL Sensitivity
The entire study hinges on the 6.6 GW transfer limit. How much does it matter?
| CETL | Mean Hrs (5 GW DC) | P90 Hrs | Reliable% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0 GW | 1,143 | 2,004 | 0% | |
| 6.6 GW | 544 | 1,094 | 0% | Current |
| 8.0 GW | 242 | 567 | 8% | |
| 9.6 GW | 78 | 213 | 46% | +HVDC |
CETL matters enormously: the HVDC reduces mean hours 7x (544→78). But even with $4.8B in new transmission, only 46% of stochastic scenarios are reliable at 5 GW DC. The deterministic analysis showed 16 hours (looked almost fine); the MC reveals the HVDC still fails in more than half of scenarios.
Transfer capacity (CETL) is the second-largest driver. Increasing Dominion CETL from 6.6 GW to 9.6 GW cuts mean hours unserved from 544 to 242—but still doesn't reach the LOLE standard. Only at 15 GW CETL (more than double current) does the grid meet reliability standards at 5 GW DC load.
Demand Noise Sensitivity
Demand noise (the uncertainty in how much load Dominion actually sees) has minimal effect on the findings. Varying noise from ±1% to ±7% changes mean hours by less than 10%. The spatial dynamics dominate demand uncertainty.
| Noise | Mean Hrs | P90 Hrs | Reliable% |
|---|---|---|---|
| ±1% | 536 | 997 | 0% |
| ±3% (default) | 545 | 1,095 | 0% |
| ±7% | 592 | 1,301 | 2% |