Deterministic (2024 profiles)
| DC Added | Single-Node | 70/30 DOM Zone | Proportional (13%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 GW | 0 hrs | 6 hrs | 6 hrs |
| 3 GW | 0 hrs | 142 hrs | 14 hrs |
| 5 GW | 0 hrs | 374 hrs | 22 hrs |
| 10 GW | 0 hrs | 2,468 hrs | 64 hrs |
PJM's 19 GW system-wide tipping point masks a 10x local problem. At 70/30 concentration in Northern Virginia, the Dominion zone hits 142 hours unserved at just 3 GW of data center load—while the system-wide model shows zero reliability issues.
Under Stress, the Answer Gets Worse
The deterministic answer was already bad. The stochastic answer is worse. At 0 GW DC, only 62% of draws meet the LOLE reliability standard. Dominion is already marginal under stress conditions—even without data centers.
| DC Added | DOM Mean | DOM P90 | DOM P95 | DOM Reliable% | Single Reliable% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 GW | 25.9 hrs | 79.7 | 167.0 | 62.0% | 94.0% |
| 3 GW | 200.5 hrs | 455.5 | 688.1 | 6.0% | 88.0% |
| 5 GW | 530.6 hrs | 988.2 | 1,396.5 | 0.0% | 78.0% |
| 7 GW | 1,122.8 hrs | 1,858.5 | 2,581.3 | 0.0% | 66.5% |
| 10 GW | 2,755.3 hrs | 4,642.5 | 5,414.3 | 0.0% | 54.0% |
200 draws: weather year (2016-2024), gas CCGT EFOR (Beta, mean 7%, max 40%), gas CT EFOR (mean 10%, max 45%), coal EFOR (mean 5%, max 20%), demand noise (Normal, ±3%), import derate (Beta, mean 10%, max 80%). Same calibration as Study 1.
Stochastic analysis reveals the cliff: at 70/30 concentration, Dominion hits 530 mean hours unserved at 5 GW DC load. Distributing load proportionally (13% Dominion share) reduces this to 26 hours—a 20x improvement from spatial awareness alone.
DOM Demand Trend
Dominion's share of PJM demand grew from 12.1% (2016) to 15.2% (2024)—a 25% increase in 8 years. Almost certainly data centers. The zone that was comfortable a decade ago is now at the edge.
Dominion's share of PJM demand has grown from 12.1% (2016) to 15.2% (2024)—a 26% increase in 8 years. The 70/30 data center concentration would accelerate this to ~30%, pushing a zone designed for 13% of PJM load to carry twice its share.