Unserved Energy (GWh) by Gas Shock Severity
Finding
The grid handles a 25% gas shock (7 hours, 38 GWh unserved). At 50%, blackouts last 20 hours.
At 75%, cascading failure: 63 hours, 869 GWh. Gas weatherization to keep outages below 25%
is the cheapest insurance policy available.
With 15 GW of data centers and 70% renewables, even a 0% gas shock produces 79 blackout hours — the grid is already stressed before any weather event. Uri at 50% shock: 1,887 GWh unserved.
Model: hourly dispatch with exogenous gas ramp-down (6h onset, 72h duration, 12h recovery).
Annual averages hide the week that matters. Run average-case dispatch and the grid looks fine. Replay Uri's weather with a 50% gas shock and you get 147 GWh unserved. At 70% renewables with data centers, 1,887 GWh. The weatherization decision hinges entirely on whether your model includes that one bad week or just the 51 unremarkable ones.