With 15 GW of data centers and 70% renewables, even a 0% gas shock produces 79 blackout hours — the grid is already stressed before any weather event. Uri at 50% shock: 1,887 GWh unserved.
Model: hourly dispatch with exogenous gas ramp-down (6h onset, 72h duration, 12h recovery). Note: Winter Storm Uri lasted ~8 days (Feb 10–18, 2021); the 72h modeled duration is a more typical Texas freeze and a deliberately conservative test — an Uri-length event would amplify the modeled blackout hours.
Annual averages hide the week that matters. Run average-case dispatch and the grid looks fine. Replay Uri's weather with a 50% gas shock and you get 147.1 GWh unserved. At 70% renewables with data centers, 1,887 GWh. The weatherization decision hinges entirely on whether your model includes that one bad week or just the 51 unremarkable ones.