Closure Rate by Region
The six U.S. regions show a clear gradient. The Northeast leads with a 7.8% closure rate, driven by a combination of high institution density, small enrollments, and steep birth rate declines. The Southeast, with growing populations and larger public systems, sits at just 4.2%.
Which States Are Hardest Hit?
Vermont leads with a 45.5% closure rate. Nearly half its institutions have closed. West Virginia, Maine, Connecticut, and New Jersey follow. They share the same profile: declining birth rates and an oversupply of small private colleges.
The births from 2005 already tell you the enrollment numbers for 2023. Children born in 2005 turned 18 in 2023. States with steep birth rate declines between 2000 and 2006, concentrated in New England and the Upper Midwest, are now experiencing the enrollment cliff that was locked in two decades ago. The demographic headwind score (Census-calibrated birth rate projections, 2000–2006) correlates strongly with the closure rate by region.
The pattern holds even within regions. Within the Northeast, Vermont (45.5%) and Connecticut (13.2%) are far worse than Rhode Island (0%) or New York (4.2%). The difference: Vermont and Connecticut have many tiny private colleges competing for a shrinking pool. New York has large public systems that absorb demand.
Demographic headwind score computed from Census-calibrated birth rate projections (2000–2006), normalized by state. Regions: Census Bureau divisions grouped into 6 macro-regions.