Select Fire
Select Community
MC Fire Arrival Distribution (200 draws)
Road Capacity vs. Demand
Evacuation Compliance Curve
Outcome Summary
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Population
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Warning Time
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Compliance
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Attempting to Leave
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Road Can Clear
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People at Risk
Trigger Hour
Options
Presets
What This Shows
For small communities, warning time is sufficient — the roads can handle the population. For Paradise (26,682 people) and Broomfield (74,112), no amount of warning solves the fundamental constraint: too many people, too few roads. The fidelity jump from "when to trigger" to "can they actually get out" changes the decision from timing to infrastructure.
The Fidelity Lesson
Q4 assumes infinite road capacity — every community evacuates instantly at the trigger hour. Adding the road capacity constraint reveals that 7 of 16 communities cannot evacuate even with perfect warning. The real lesson from the Camp Fire is that road capacity — not warning time — was the binding constraint. No amount of forecast fidelity fixes a 3-road town with 26,000 people.