Wildfire Insurance Study → Interactive → Fidelity Comparison

Compare Risk at Every Fidelity Level

Watch how risk classifications shift as the model adds physics, terrain, and weather. At L0, every property looks the same. By L3, the map tells a completely different story — and the insurer makes a completely different decision.

Fidelity Level
Fire Scenario
L0 — Flat-Rate Zone

Every property in the fire zone gets the same risk score based on county-level wildfire history. No terrain, no fuel type, no weather. This is how most basic insurance pricing works.

Risk Distribution
Low
0
properties
Medium
12
properties
High
304
properties
Extreme
0
properties
Reclassified from L0 0%
Sensitivity (burned caught) —
Terrain Grid — Kincade Fire at L0
Risk level
Burn prob
Burned
Grid cell
Low
Medium
High
Extreme
The Lesson

Fidelity Changes the Decision

At L0, an insurer sees 316 properties in a fire zone and prices them all the same. At L3, those same properties separate into 4 distinct risk classes. Some are genuinely safe — surrounded by defensible space, uphill from fuel breaks, sheltered from prevailing winds. Others sit in ember-vulnerable WUI positions where no amount of premium makes them insurable.

Key Insight
The Kincade Fire reclassifies 91% of properties between L0 and L3. The vast majority move to Extreme risk. A flat-rate insurer misprices nearly every property — undercharging the vulnerable, overcharging the defensible.

The Camp Fire is even more severe: 87% of properties end up classified Extreme at L3. Paradise was a town built in the wrong place — surrounded by dense timber on steep terrain with a single evacuation route. The fidelity ladder reveals what flat-rate pricing hides: some communities cannot be insured at any price.

← Back Wildfire Insurance Study Next → Portfolio Explorer