Planned Cost Breakdown
| Cost Category | Model A | Model B | Model C |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stations | 111 | 49 | 49 |
| Total Ports | 888 | 948 | 654 |
| Hardware ($150K/port) | $133.2M | $142.2M | $98.1M |
| Installation ($50K/port) | $44.4M | $47.4M | $32.7M |
| Land / Permitting ($200K/station) | $22.2M | $9.8M | $9.8M |
| Grid Upgrades | $0 | $0 | $5.5M |
| Capital Total | $199.8M | $199.4M | $146.1M |
| O&M Annual ($6.5K/port) | $5.8M | $6.2M | $4.3M |
| 10yr NPV (5%) | $244.4M | $247.0M | $178.9M |
Model C is the cheapest option — not the most expensive. It plans 654 ports, all of which can actually draw power from the grid. Model B plans 948 ports but 294 of them sit near substations that can't deliver the load. You either accept 654 functional ports for $199.4M, or you spend $50M+ on grid upgrades to activate the remaining 294.
The Stranded Ports Problem
O&M costs $6,500 per port per year (NREL 2024). Over 10 years at 5% discount, that's ~$50K per port. Model B's 948-port plan costs $6.2M/year — but if only 654 ports are operational, you're paying O&M on 294 dark ports.
Model A: $225K per functional port. All 888 ports work, but 111 stations means high land costs and lower utilization at many sites.
Model B: $305K per functional port. Plans 948 ports but only 654 can draw power. You pay $199.4M for what Model C achieves for $146.1M.
Model C: $223K per functional port. Every port can be energized. Lowest cost per functional port because it right-sizes from day one.
Cost model: hardware $150K/port, installation $50K/port, land $200K/station, grid upgrades $300/kW (NREL ATB), O&M $6,500/port/year. 10yr NPV at 5% discount.
Sensitivity: How Robust Is the $68M?
The $68M NPV savings rests on estimated substation capacity. We don't have utility SCADA data, so loading percentages are derived from voltage class and county growth proxies. What if those estimates are wrong?
| Scenario | Grid Loading Assumption | Constrained Ports | NPV Savings vs Model B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Optimistic (grid has more headroom) | Estimates −20% | ~200 ports affected | ~$45M |
| Base case (as estimated) | Voltage-class estimates | 294 ports affected | $68M |
| Pessimistic (grid more loaded) | Estimates +20% | ~380 ports affected | ~$90M |