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EV Charging → Question 5

What Does It Actually Cost?

Model B costs $199M for 948 ports. Model C costs $146M for 654 ports. Only Model C's ports all work.

Planned Cost Breakdown

Cost Category Model A Model B Model C
Stations 111 49 49
Total Ports 888 948 654
Hardware ($150K/port) $133.2M $142.2M $98.1M
Installation ($50K/port) $44.4M $47.4M $32.7M
Land / Permitting ($200K/station) $22.2M $9.8M $9.8M
Grid Upgrades $5.5M
Capital Total $199.8M $199.4M $146.1M
O&M Annual ($6.5K/port) $5.8M $6.2M $4.3M
10yr NPV (5%) $244.4M $247.0M $178.9M

Model C is the cheapest option — not the most expensive. It plans 654 ports, all of which can actually draw power from the grid. Model B plans 948 ports but 294 of them sit near substations that can't deliver the load. You either accept 654 functional ports for $199.4M, or you spend $50M+ on grid upgrades to activate the remaining 294.

Capital Cost Breakdown by Model

The Stranded Ports Problem

O&M costs $6,500 per port per year (NREL 2024). Over 10 years at 5% discount, that's ~$50K per port. Model B's 948-port plan costs $6.2M/year — but if only 654 ports are operational, you're paying O&M on 294 dark ports.

Cost Per Functional Port

Model A: $225K per functional port. All 888 ports work, but 111 stations means high land costs and lower utilization at many sites.

Model B: $305K per functional port. Plans 948 ports but only 654 can draw power. You pay $199.4M for what Model C achieves for $146.1M.

Model C: $223K per functional port. Every port can be energized. Lowest cost per functional port because it right-sizes from day one.

Model B looks optimal on paper ($199.4M for 948 ports). But 294 of those ports can't draw power from their substations. You either spend $50M+ on grid upgrades or accept $305K per functional port instead of $223K.
Finding
Model C saves $68M in 10-year NPV — not by being clever about grid upgrades, but by right-sizing from the start. Every port it plans can actually be powered.

Cost model: hardware $150K/port, installation $50K/port, land $200K/station, grid upgrades $300/kW (NREL ATB), O&M $6,500/port/year. 10yr NPV at 5% discount.

Sensitivity: How Robust Is the $68M?

The $68M NPV savings rests on estimated substation capacity. We don't have utility SCADA data, so loading percentages are derived from voltage class and county growth proxies. What if those estimates are wrong?

Scenario Grid Loading Assumption Constrained Ports NPV Savings vs Model B
Optimistic (grid has more headroom) Estimates −20% ~200 ports affected ~$45M
Base case (as estimated) Voltage-class estimates 294 ports affected $68M
Pessimistic (grid more loaded) Estimates +20% ~380 ports affected ~$90M
Even if our loading estimates are off by 20%, the savings land between $45M and $90M. The exact number moves around. The recommendation doesn't: check the grid before you commit the budget.